> ## Content Index
> Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.improvesomething.today/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further.

# 2 ways to get better at guessing
- URL: https://www.improvesomething.today/2-ways-to-get-better-at-guessing/
- Published: 2022-11-02T15:00:53.000Z
- Updated: 2026-01-09T17:18:26.000Z
- Description: Try out your guesses; write them down.
- Author: Brian Kerr
- Tags: Learning

## First way: try out guesses with small, reversible tests

Try out changes on a small scale—involving a few people for a short period of time—and in a way that’s easy to bail on.

Things tried out this way tend to be crappy or prototype-y. Good:

- Use a piece of paper instead of a fancy app.
- Make a spreadsheet instead of a report.
- Draw a table and figures on the wall instead of a spreadsheet.
- Do it manually today. Automate later.

**Small:** you need only enough work to figure out if your guess was any good. Don’t dump resources or spend time rushing towards dead ends.

**Reversible:** work this way to take the sting out of failure. Idea didn’t work? Stop and try the next one.

**Test:** once you can point to an initial success, gather resources and proceed with something more elaborate.

## Second way: a logbook of guesses

Once you start testing your guesses, you’ll find that you make a lot of guesses, and run a lot of little tests. So keep a log. Write down:

- Your guess,
- What you thought might happen, and
- What actually happened.
- Was your test bigger or smaller than it needed to be?

Practice this and your guesses will improve over time.

Don’t take my word for it—try it in a small, reversible way, and see.

July 16, 2024: edited for length.